A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
